THIS DAWN — As the 2026 governorship election approaches in Osun State, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has settled on a consensus candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO).
His emergence, however, has sparked debate about the party’s internal processes and the role of President Bola Tinubu in shaping outcomes.
Political analyst Abiodun Komolafe has warned that while Tinubu’s influence may consolidate power, unresolved grievances could destabilize the party, drawing parallels to historical political implosions.
On December 5, 2025, seven of nine aspirants were disqualified during the APC screening exercise, leaving Oyebamiji as the consensus choice.
While this signals a focused start for the party, critics argue the process exposed weaknesses in APC’s institutional framework.
Komolafe cautions that bruised egos and sidelined ambitions must be addressed urgently to prevent disaffection that could harm the party’s chances at the polls.
Tinubu’s Intervention
President Tinubu’s endorsement of Oyebamiji is seen as a decisive move to silence dissent and consolidate APC’s strength.
Analysts note that aspirants who may have considered leaving the party are unlikely to challenge a decision backed by the presidency.
Komolafe suggests that less influential aspirants should accept appointments or contracts offered as compensation, warning that defiance could incur the wrath of Aso Rock.
Despite Tinubu’s backing, Komolafe warns that the Osun governorship race is likely to be a three‑way contest, with the possibility of a runoff.
He stresses that complacency would be dangerous in a politically savvy state like Osun.
Drawing lessons from APC’s 2022 defeat, he argues that internal wrangling must be avoided at all costs, as division guarantees electoral loss.
Historical Lessons
Komolafe recalls the 1992 Social Democratic Party (SDP) primary, where perceived imposition led to revolt and eventual loss of Lagos State to Sir Michael Otedola of the National Republican Convention.
He warns that APC risks repeating history if reconciliation is not prioritized.
“History does not repeat itself; the problem is that human beings do not learn the lessons of history,” he writes.
As consensus candidate, Oyebamiji must initiate a peace accord with disaffected members to prevent mutually assured destruction.
Komolafe emphasizes the need for a strategic, data‑driven media campaign tailored to specific voter demographics across Osun’s three senatorial districts and 30 local government areas.
He cites APC’s recent success in Ekiti State as a model, where a creative media thrust stabilized the party and rallied support around a pro‑people agenda.
The analyst insists that Oyebamiji must present himself as the champion of ordinary citizens suffering economic hardship, offering a credible alternative to current governance.
He warns that a universal campaign message will not suffice; instead, targeted communication is essential to maximize voter turnout.
Internal Threats
Komolafe cautions that those who remain within the APC but feel excluded could act as a fifth column, undermining the party from within.
Quoting Yoruba wisdom, he notes: “The enemy lives in the backyard, while the evil doer lives within the house.”
He likens the situation to Julius Caesar’s fatal disregard of warnings about the Ides of March, urging APC leaders to heed internal threats before they prove fatal.
The emergence of Oyebamiji as APC’s consensus candidate, backed by President Tinubu, marks a pivotal moment ahead of the 2026 Osun governorship election.
While the endorsement strengthens the party’s position, Komolafe warns that unity, reconciliation, and strategic campaigning are paramount.
Failure to address internal discord could lead to a repeat of past defeats, with history serving as a stark reminder of the dangers of complacency.
