THIS DAWN — Political power is never given. Hardly is it ever offered on a platter. Acquiring political power is hard work, even in a populist contest. In a diverse, multi-religious and multi-ethnic democracy like ours; you earn power.
You work for it. You negotiate it. In extreme dubious cases, some will grab, steal or rig themselves into power. That option will always be infradig!
There is a wholesale and very animated debate about the unfolding power dynamics within opposition alliance African Democratic Congress (ADC) ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.
That’s routine. That’s normal. Therefore, I consider their piece, a flip side contribution to that national debate. But there is more at play than meets the eye. And that is the focus of this analysis.
For any subjective analysis of this nature to have credence, it is best to begin with some full disclosures.
First, I believe only a formidable alliance of eclectic politicians will defeat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
Unlikely as it seems, I believe that alliance is the unfolding ADC national coalition. Second, I’m an ADC card carrying member. I’m ex-APGA; I’m ex-PDP and ex-LP. What this says, is that I have been in Nigeria’s political mix.
Third, I’m pro-Peter Obi presidency. I’ve always been. I’m one of those who unapologetically say, “2027: Peter Obi or Nothing.” We all make choices. That’s mine.
I speak as a member of Peter Obi’s camp, but without prejudice to the rights, thinking and aspirations of the others.
You can translate that to also mean; that I fully support the presidency being zoned as it is to the south, and especially, for the next president to come from Nigeria’s southeast. I know I am not alone in my thinking.
Finally, I believe, despite our national consternation that a New Nigeria is possible, and I am willing and ready to work for its realization.
What this means is that some of us in ADC envisage a negotiated power arrangement as a means of building the inevitable broad alliance required to uproot the rogue APC government from power.
We are fighting for a better Nigeria. Sacrifices must be made.
Some within and outside ADC have argued that what we should insist on is a free and fair presidential primary and support for whoever emerges. That’s fair enough; convenient, but defeatist. It just won’t work. We need a negotiated outcome, which respects the extant zoning arrangement fully, and which Nigerians, Nigerian youths, the Obidients and the over 10 million voters, who supported Peter Obi in 2023, can buy into.
Let’s draw from lessons. In tandem with the rotational principles, the APC and Buhari were in power for eight years. Then power shifted to the south. Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket clinched the first 4 years by subterfuge. The question now, is; what happens to the second term of the south’s turn? Clearly Nigerians don’t want Tinubu and APC. They need a credible alternative for the remaining four years. Anyone suggesting that the four years should go north is either not serious or pandering to their personal and localised interests. If a northerner vies for and wins the presidency in 2027, what happens in 2031? Indeed, assuming that is the fate of ADC, will it expect to remain whole in 2031? It must learn from what has happened to the almighty PDP.
What ADC needs to do and indeed any serious political party, is to constitutionally zone their 2027 presidential ticket to the south as the ruling APC has done. Call it seamless equity. Call it respect for due process and the rule of law. Above all, call it pragmatic and strategic. Any thinking that is otherwise, is fallacious!
Just in case some have forgotten, let’s rehash some hard facts that can also be fact checked. Atiku Abubakar has run for the Nigerian presidency six times, between 1993 and 2023. So, 2027 will be his 7th attempt. As has been surmised by those who follow political trends in Nigeria, in 2013 Atiku Abubakar proclaimed that it was the turn of the North. Feeling justified, and perhaps more out of conviction than desperation, he joined some state governors to quit PDP and joined APC. PDP is yet to recover from that near fatal injury. In 2018, Atiku Abubakar was back in PDP; it was the turn of the North. He got the PDP ticket, made Peter Obi his running mate. In all probability, they won but presumably lost to APC.
In 2023, when it was now indisputably the turn of the South, again, Atiku Abubakar insisted on running against the run of play that breached the orderly zoning arrangement. That excursion opened up old wounds and sensitivities that figuratively sent PDP back to the sick bay. It was that move that forced Peter Obi and some of us out of PDP and into Labour Party in late May 2022. It needs recalling that while campaigning in Kaduna, Atiku Abubakar totally disregarding that the presidency was zoned to the south, reportedly said; “Northerners need someone from the North, not Igbo, or Yoruba.” It’s on public record also, that Atiku Abubakar’s running mate, Gov. Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State, eventually admitted that it was an error and publicly apologized for supporting and partaking in a process that did not respect PDP zoning rules and the rights of the south.
Here is a point for all to ponder. In the 2019 presidential election, Atiku Abubakar as the PDP candidate with Peter Obi as his running mate came in second with 11.2 million votes. In 2023, Atiku Abubakar as the PDP candidate with Gov. Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate came in second with 6.9 million votes. So, the southeast votes still counts for something. Should Atiku Abubakar run in 2027, under any circumstance, he will certainly not get the southeast votes. Even, if he comes second, that is not a winning proposition for ADC.
Let’s fast forward to the present. The ADC has been adopted as national coalition platform. It has as its chair, esteemed Sen. David Mark from North Central. It has broad diversity within its leadership ranks. It is a congregation of politicians, who despite their respective incongruence and proclivities, want to see a New Nigeria. If there is one constant; the next four years of the presidency is tacitly still zoned to the South. It’s on that basis that ADC must now come up with a winning formula and strategy in order to win the presidency by defeating the incumbent. This is not time to pussyfoot or pander to vested interests. It’s time to be strategic.
Setting my preference and biases aside; what are those urging Atiku to run up to? Are they enemies of the very democracy they wave as credential? Have they done the math? As is now common knowledge, in 2023, Peter Obi defeated Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. These are historical facts. Insiders in INEC, as well those in APC, PDP and LP camps knew that besides winning Rivers and Benue States, Obi also leading in Adamawa State in 2023, even though he never physically campaigned there. After the counting and announcing of the Adamawa election results was halted mid-way, the outcome changed. Adamawa eventually went to PDP.
What guarantees do those who suggest directly or obliquely that Peter Obi should run as deputy to Atiku Abubakar in 2027, offer to any southerner, including Peter Obi that they can run in 2031, when power rotates back to the North? So, let the south complete its zoned eight years and the North can do as they wish in 2031. The prime objective, is who Nigerians can trust sufficiently to deliver votes to; enough votes to dislodge APC. The ultimate goal is to, put Nigeria back on a stable economic, political and development trajectory. If the ADC presidential tickets go to Atiku Abubakar, the southeast and the Obidients will surely demur, even if Peter Obi is the VP candidate. That’s stark reality. When Pat Utomi and Aisha Yesufu spoke their minds in that regard, some people trolled them. Incidentally, I share their views, fully.
If the inconvenient truth be told, any Northerner running for the presidency in 2027 after Buhari’s eight years, will be unfair to the south and especially the southeast, and only wants to upend the extant zoning arrangements. In seeking to do so, they are, and will continue to be unfair to the southeast, the only southern zone that hasn’t held the Nigerian presidency or the vice-presidency since the return to participatory democracy in 1999.
I have the highest regards for Wazirin Atiku Abubakar. Honestly, he is not the problem of the south. He is eminently qualified to be president; and he has a right to his aspirations. It is those in his camp, and APC masterminds, who prod and give him the impetus to stomp on the south that are the Wahala. The scenarios that they are replaying, is exactly what happened in PDP in 2023. In 2018, at PDP convention in Port Harcourt, it was the turn of the North, and the PDP zoned it accordingly. It remains instructive that all the 12 aspirants at the 2018 PDP primary in Port-Harcourt from which Atiku Abubakar emerged were Northerners.
In 2018, the South-East and entire southern zone overwhelmingly delivered their votes to Atiku Abubakar making it possible for him to secure1,532 of the votes cast by 3,274 delegates. I was there and led the Anambra PDP delegation. I eventually served as the Chair of the Atiku-Obi Campaign Council in Anambra. We need to replicate that arrangement for the South as ADC goes to its 2027 primary. Nothing short will do. Of course, the process has to be negotiated. It has to be arrived at, via the unfettered respect for zoning.
This brings up the issue of the single four-year commitment. Half loaf is better than none, is a worthy cliché in this regard. It will be incumbent on the southeast elders in the ADC coalition, to guarantee that the four-year commitment and agreement is sacrosanct; and that power will return to the North in 2031. I know the consultations are ongoing. It is from that arrangement that Atiku Abubakar will draw his own strategy and weigh in with his support for a southern, most preferably, southeast candidate. As I see it, Atiku Abubakar can also accentuate his elder statesman’s role, by helping to determine the northern VP candidate. There is even a more audacious possibility, assuming it’s constitutionally feasible. Please, don’t consider this cheeky. A reverse Obi-Atiku ticket will be awesome, at least in terms of political experience and exposure. I’m just thinking outside the box! Atiku Abubakar’s advisers know better if it’s a sellable idea.
Regardless of what happens in the opposition camp, those southeasterners, including the incumbent southeast state governors, who have pitched camp with the ruling APC, know fully that their disposition is out of flank with mainstream southeast thinking. Some commodities don’t sell well in Ariaria, Ogbete, Ochanja, and Enyiogugu markets. If their respective and collective choices is their sense of justice to the southeast people, may it be so to them in their personal endeavours.
ADC power dynamics and realism remain the exclusive remit of the ADC’s national leadership. I’m certain ADC leaders are fully attuned to the unfolding developments. For me, it is better that Peter Obi runs for the 2027 presidency in ADC or anywhere else and let Nigerians be the judge. We must, however, respect the south’s zoning rights. There has to be honesty and morality in our politics. It’s time to cut to the chase and call a spade by its name. Political pandering has gotten us nowhere; not as a nation and certainly, not as a people.
Obaze is an ADC card-carrying member.
