TD Abuja, FCT — An unverified intelligence report circulating in political circles claims that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could be restricted from physically participating in demanding campaign rallies ahead of the 2027 presidential election because of undisclosed medical concerns.
The report further claims that the All Progressives Congress (APC) could rely heavily on Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Shettima, the report claims, will undertake nationwide political engagements on behalf of the president if Tinubu is unable to maintain an intensive campaign schedule.
However, This Dawn News has not independently verified the claim that French doctors have advised or banned President Tinubu from participating in campaign rallies.
Presently, there is no evidence in the material reviewed that such a directive has been formally issued by the presidency, APC or Tinubu’s medical team.
The allegation comes amid renewed public discussion about the president’s health and physical fitness as Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election.
Report Claims ‘Proxy Campaign’ Could Be Considered
The intelligence report cited sources allegedly familiar with the APC presidential campaign.
According to the report, Tinubu may not be physically positioned to undertake an extensive campaign across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The report proposes what it describes as a “proxy campaign”.
Vice President Shettima may potentially take a leading role in nationwide political mobilisation while Tinubu maintains a reduced public schedule.
It claims that Shettima has already assumed a substantial share of the president’s political and economic engagements.
This includes representing Tinubu at international summits, economic forums and meetings involving state governors.
The report further claims that Shettima recently travelled across several geopolitical zones.
Meanwhile, Tinubu has spent significant periods in Abuja or outside Nigeria.
These claims, however, have not been independently established by This Dawn News.
Health Questions on Tinubu Re-emerge Ahead of 2027
The report comes against the backdrop of renewed international and domestic discussion about Tinubu’s health.
In an October 5, 2026, analysis, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) examined growing concerns surrounding the Nigerian president’s physical condition ahead of the next presidential election.
The analysis noted that questions about Tinubu’s health have persisted since his August 30 departure from Nigeria.
Tinubu had left for what was initially described by his handlers as a “working vacation.”
CFR reported that Tinubu returned to Lagos on September 29 after spending four weeks in the United Kingdom and France.
The organisation also noted that Tinubu has rejected concerns about his health.
Upon his arrival in Lagos, the president told journalists that he was “ready to kick, ready to work” and described himself as “healthy and sound.”
His Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, also dismissed reports of ill health as false.
CFR Raises Questions Over Tinubu France Trips
The CFR analysis also examined the frequency of Tinubu’s trips to France.
According to the report, Tinubu made five visits to France between May 2023 and April 2025.
He has visited the country nine times during his presidency under various descriptions, including private and working visits.
CFR also reported that, shortly before his inauguration in 2023, Tinubu was reported to have travelled to the American Hospital of Paris in Neuilly-sur-Seine for a medical checkup.
However, the CFR publication does not establish that Tinubu is currently receiving treatment in France.
It does not also state that French doctors have prohibited him from participating in campaign rallies.
Presidency Has Rejected Health Concerns
Tinubu and his representatives have consistently rejected speculation about serious health problems.
CFR reported that the president himself dismissed the concerns upon his return to Lagos, while Onanuga described allegations of ill health as “entirely false.”
This Dawn News has found no verified medical statement from the presidency or Tinubu’s doctors confirming that the president has been diagnosed with a condition that would prevent him from campaigning in 2027.
Earlier Health Claims on Tinubu by Mike Arnold
The latest claims follow an earlier statement by current events analyst Mike Arnold.
Arnold had alleged that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s health had deteriorated severely while he remained in France.
Arnold said the information came from a source he regarded as trustworthy, but expressly acknowledged that the claim had not been independently verified.
He alleged that Tinubu was “near death” and challenged the President to appear publicly to disprove the claim.
“I have received a bit of insider information… Tinubu is still in France because his health has cratered and he is near death.”
Arnold subsequently argued that Tinubu’s continued absence from public view required clarification.
The allegation was rejected by the Presidency.
Presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga described Tinubu as “hale and hearty”.
Onanuga said the President’s stay in France was a working vacation during which he continued to direct government affairs remotely.
Confidential Source Also Raised Aircraft Question
Separately, a source who told This Dawn News that they were close to the Presidency alleged that Tinubu’s use of a smaller private aircraft during his European trip could have been connected to his health.
The source claimed that the President was allegedly too ill to board the newly acquired presidential aircraft and therefore used a smaller aircraft.
That claim was also not independently verified and should not be treated as evidence of Tinubu’s medical condition.
The allegation emerged after a September 22 This Dawn News report raised questions.
The questions include why Tinubu was reportedly travelling on a smaller private aircraft despite Nigeria’s acquisition of an Airbus A330 presidential aircraft in 2024.
The aircraft issue, however, does not by itself establish anything about the President’s health.
The use of a smaller aircraft could have other explanations, and the material reviewed does not establish that Tinubu was unable to board the A330 because of a medical condition.
What Is Established
The Presidency confirmed that Tinubu left Nigeria on August 30 for what was described as a working vacation, travelled from London to Paris and subsequently extended his stay.
The Presidency also said that he continued communicating with officials in Nigeria while abroad and later announced that his stay had been extended.
Onanuga repeatedly rejected reports that the President was incapacitated, describing him as “hale and hearty.”
Against that background, Arnold’s allegation that Tinubu was seriously ill and near death remains unverified/.
So also, the confidential source’s claim that the President’s choice of aircraft was dictated by his health.
There is no public medical report in the material reviewed establishing that Tinubu was terminally ill or near death.
The two claims should therefore be treated as separate allegations rather than established evidence of a medical condition.
The 2027 Political Implications for Tinubu
The president’s physical capacity could nevertheless become a significant political issue as the 2027 campaign approaches.
Nigeria’s political history contains precedents for intense public scrutiny of presidential health.
CFR recalled the controversy surrounding former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.
Yar’Adua’s prolonged absence from Nigeria for medical treatment eventually generated a constitutional crisis.
The report also referenced the health-related controversies surrounding former President Muhammadu Buhari.
Buhari had spent extended periods abroad for medical treatment during his presidency.
For the Tinubu administration, any sustained reduction in the president’s public engagements could therefore carry political consequences.
This is particularly so during an election campaign in which personal visibility, nationwide rallies and direct engagement with voters traditionally play major roles.
What Remains Unverified
Several specific claims contained in the intelligence report require independent confirmation.
These include:
- That French doctors have formally advised Tinubu not to participate in strenuous 2027 campaign rallies.
- That the president has been diagnosed with a medical condition requiring such restrictions.
- That APC has formally approved a “proxy campaign” led by Vice President Shettima.
- That Shettima will campaign across all 36 states and the FCT on Tinubu’s behalf.
- That Tinubu is currently receiving undisclosed medical treatment in Nigeria or France.
- That the president’s campaign schedule has already been altered because of medical advice.
None of these claims has been independently established by This Dawn News.
Why the Claims Matter
The allegations are nevertheless likely to fuel further debate about presidential fitness as Nigeria approaches the 2027 election.
The CFR analysis concluded that concerns about the health of Nigeria’s first citizen are significant but that their ultimate political effect remains uncertain.
It also noted that Tinubu’s fitness for office is likely to become a recurring issue whenever questions arise about his physical condition or international travel.
For now, the claim that French doctors have “banned” President Tinubu from 2027 campaign rallies remains unverified.
Any definitive conclusion would require confirmation from the Presidency, APC, the president’s medical team or credible documentary evidence.
