THIS DAWN — Nigeria’s worsening insecurity crisis has once again come under scrutiny, with analysts pointing to deep historical roots and decades of unheeded warnings.
From the Maitatsine riots of the early 1980s to the current insurgency ravaging parts of the country, the trajectory of violence reflects systemic failures in governance, economic planning, and security strategy.
The Justice Alexander Ovie Aniagolu Report on the Maitatsine Riots in Kano (1981) had forewarned of the dangers ahead.
Between 1980 and 1985, violent uprisings led by Muhammad Marwa, known as Maitatsine, and his Yan Tatsine sect spread across Northern Nigeria, claiming thousands of lives before being suppressed by the military.
Four decades later, Nigeria is living with the consequences of ignoring those warnings.
Forces that crippled the rural economy
Experts argue that the destruction of the agricultural value chain, worsened by the termination of the 1963 Republican Constitution and the misplaced reliance on oil wealth, crippled the rural economy.
The failure to make education free and compulsory from the late 1970s compounded the problem, leaving millions vulnerable to extremist ideologies.
The Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) introduced under former Military President Ibrahim Babangida further devastated the North’s fragile economy.
Industries such as textiles collapsed, paving the way for widespread unemployment and poverty.
Analysts say this economic dislocation created fertile ground for the emergence of Boko Haram and other insurgent groups.
Instead of addressing root causes, Nigeria’s war against terror became a lucrative enterprise for political and military elites.
A “military industrial complex” emerged, profiting from a never-ending conflict without meaningful parliamentary oversight.
Terrorism profiteering and racketeering
Observers note that the return on investment for those benefitting from defence contracts rivals that of oil and gas, leaving the nation defrauded in what many now describe as a phantom war.
Calls are growing for the National Assembly to conduct a forensic audit of defence spending over the past 15 years.
Such an inquiry, experts insist, would expose entrenched profiteering and demonstrate why increased spending has failed to end the insurgency.
Without dismantling this framework, Nigeria risks fighting terrorism indefinitely.
Another major gap is the absence of an Unexplained Sources of Wealth Act.
Senator Ali Ndume has proposed such legislation, which would compel individuals to account for their wealth.
Analysts believe this could help curb profiteering and racketeering linked to the war economy.
Conventional versus guerrilla warfare
Beyond financial accountability, critics argue that Nigeria must admit it has been fighting the war the wrong way.
Against guerrilla fighters, heavy armour proves ineffective.
Instead, the country needs Special Forces equipped with specially configured motorbikes, drones, and advanced surveillance technology to track and neutralize insurgents.
Satellite sensors, for instance, could monitor the movement of convoys of motorcycles often used by terrorists.
The failure of intelligence gathering remains another critical weakness.
Experts urge a strengthening of local intelligence frameworks and the adoption of unconventional warfare strategies.
Historical examples such as the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in Vietnam (1954), where lightly armed guerrillas defeated a superior French force, underscore the importance of adapting military structures to asymmetric warfare.
The reality of insecurity
Nigeria’s insurgency is also mutating, with splinter groups emerging from internal divisions.
Analysts warn that without proactive planning, the country could face multiple factions simultaneously, complicating the fight.
For many Nigerians, insecurity is not an abstract debate but a daily reality.
Parents of abducted schoolchildren, survivors of attacks, and communities under siege are less concerned about political narratives ahead of the 2027 elections than about their immediate safety.
The lingering trauma of the Chibok abductions and recent kidnappings in Kebbi highlight the human toll of the crisis.
Ultimately, experts insist that Nigeria must overhaul its security strategy, dismantle profiteering networks, and embrace unconventional warfare methods.
Without these reforms, the cycle of violence may persist for decades, leaving citizens to wonder when the madness will finally end.
By Abiodun Komolafe
