THIS DAWN — Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability concerns has deepened as new data made available within the week revealed that the Federal Government has significantly overshot its 2025 borrowing ceiling, raising alarm among economists and policy analysts.
According to publicly available fiscal records and multiple independent analyses, the government borrowed ₦17.36 trillion between January and October 2025.
This is far above its prorated borrowing target of ₦10.9 trillion for the same period.
The 2025 Appropriation Act sets the full-year borrowing limit at ₦13.08 trillion, meaning the government had already exceeded the annual legal ceiling by nearly ₦4.3 trillion before the end of October.
If the current trend continues, total borrowing could reach an estimated ₦23 trillion by December — an overshoot of almost ₦10 trillion, or close to 80 percent above the approved limit.
Fiscal analysts warn that this trend reflects widespread revenue underperformance, especially in non-oil revenue streams, and a widening gap between projected and actual oil production.
The budget was premised on an ambitious oil output of 2.06 million barrels per day at $75 per barrel.
However, production has hovered between 1.6 and 1.7 million barrels per day amid persistent theft, operational disruptions, and declining investment.
Lower international crude prices have further strained expected earnings.
More borrowings approved by National Assembly
In addition to the breach of borrowing limits, the National Assembly recently approved President Bola Tinubu’s request for an extra ₦1.15 trillion in borrowing to bridge the widening budget deficit.
This has heightened public concern over the country’s rising debt obligations.
Economic experts caution that the government’s aggressive recourse to domestic borrowing risks crowding out private sector credit, driving up interest rates, and slowing economic growth.
The pressure on domestic financial markets is expected to intensify as the government competes with businesses for limited loanable funds.
Critics argue that the borrowing trajectory signals deteriorating fiscal discipline, noting that expenditure continues to rise despite sluggish revenue performance.
There are also concerns about transparency, as civil society groups have renewed calls for clearer disclosures on how borrowed funds are allocated and spent.
For now, the Federal Government has not issued an official statement addressing the breach of the statutory borrowing limit.
However, financial experts emphasize that Nigeria’s economic outlook will depend heavily on the administration’s ability to rein in spending, boost oil and non-oil revenues, and implement long-promised fiscal reforms.
