THIS DAWN — Nigeria is standing at a critical fiscal crossroads as far as budget is concerned.
Recent disclosures around the Federal Government’s fiscal framework for 2026 — including plans to borrow close to ₦18–₦20 trillion to fund the budget — have once again brought to the fore deep concerns about the sustainability, transparency, and credibility of public finance management in the country.
At a time when citizens are grappling with severe economic hardship, rising insecurity, unemployment, and declining purchasing power, the optics and substance of ever-expanding borrowing demand serious scrutiny.
The figures are sobering.
The 2025 budget, pegged at approximately ₦54.99 trillion, is still struggling with implementation delays, with reports indicating that a significant portion of its capital projects will be rolled over into 2026.
Yet even before Nigerians can see tangible outcomes from the 2025 fiscal plan, discussions are already advanced around another budget of similar size for 2026, underpinned by an estimated deficit of over ₦20 trillion.
Debt servicing
Debt servicing alone is projected to approach ₦16 trillion in 2026.
While official projections suggest this represents less than half of expected revenue, the reality remains troubling:
A substantial portion of what the government earns is committed upfront to servicing existing debt, leaving limited fiscal space for development, social services, or economic stimulation.
This is not a position of strength; it is a warning signal.
Equally concerning is the contradiction between official claims of improved revenue performance in 2025 and the continued reliance on massive borrowing.
If revenues have indeed increased and targets have been met, Nigerians deserve clarity on why deficits remain so wide and why borrowing continues to rise at historic levels.
Transparency
Transparency in public finance is not optional; it is the bedrock of public trust.
Budgeting, by its very nature, is meant to be a disciplined exercise in prioritisation.
Yet Nigeria’s fiscal pattern increasingly reflects a cycle of consumption-driven expenditure, weak project execution, and deficit financing that postpones today’s problems into tomorrow’s crises.
Rolling over uncompleted projects from one fiscal year to the next while expanding borrowing does not amount to development; it signals systemic inefficiency.
No nation has ever borrowed its way into sustainable prosperity.
Economic growth is built on production, value creation, exports, and strong institutions that ensure accountability and efficient use of resources.
Without structural reforms to expand the productive base of the economy, strengthen revenue administration, curb waste, and improve budget execution, additional borrowing merely deepens vulnerability.
Responsible borrowing versus development
This is not an argument against borrowing per se.
Responsible borrowing, tied to clearly defined, productivity-enhancing investments, can play a role in development.
But borrowing that primarily sustains recurrent expenditure, services old debt, and delivers limited tangible outcomes to citizens is fiscally reckless.
Nigeria’s leaders must confront hard truths.
The country cannot continue to mortgage the future of its young population through unchecked deficits and opaque fiscal practices.
What is required now is honesty in numbers, discipline in spending, urgency in implementation, and courage to pursue reforms that may be politically difficult but economically necessary.
A new fiscal direction is not only possible; it is imperative. Nigeria’s future depends on it.
