THIS DAWN — The All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria’s ruling party, has witnessed dramatic defections of governors moving from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) over the past decade.
While these defections have bolstered APC’s numerical dominance, analysts warn that the very strategy that strengthened the party may now be sowing seeds of internal weakness.
Historical Waves of Defections
The first major wave occurred in 2013–2014, when five sitting governors abandoned the PDP to join the newly formed APC.
These include:
- Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers),
- Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara),
- Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano),
- Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), and,
- Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto)
This “G5” movement was pivotal in establishing APC’s credibility as a national force, eventually helping it secure victory in the 2015 general elections.
A second wave followed in 2020–2021, with Dave Umahi (Ebonyi), Ben Ayade (Cross River), and Bello Matawalle (Zamfara) crossing over.
By then, APC had entrenched itself as the ruling party, and defections were seen as pragmatic moves by governors seeking alignment with federal power.
By the end of 2021, APC had absorbed eight governors since its inception.
The 2025 Defections Surge
The most significant realignment came in 2025, amid PDP’s deepening internal crises and the consolidation of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Six governors defected within the year:
- Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta) — April
- Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom) — June
- Peter Mbah (Enugu) — October
- Douye Diri (Bayelsa) — November
- Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers) — early December
- Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau) — mid‑December
This surge brought the total number of defected governors to 14 since 2013.
It also cemented APC’s control over 27–28 of Nigeria’s 36 states.
PDP, once Nigeria’s dominant party, now controls fewer than 8 states.
Why Governors Defect
Defections are often explained by three recurring factors:
- Alignment with Federal Power: Governors seek closer ties with the presidency to secure federal projects and funding.
- Escape from PDP’s Leadership Crises: Internal wrangling and factional battles have weakened PDP’s cohesion, pushing governors toward APC.
- Political Survival: With APC controlling the federal government, defectors often calculate that their political futures are safer within the ruling party.
How APC’s Strength Creates Weakness
While defections have given APC numerical supremacy, they have also introduced internal contradictions.
The party now houses former PDP heavyweights with competing loyalties, ambitions, and political styles.
Analysts argue that APC risks becoming a “catch‑all” party without ideological coherence, where personal interests outweigh collective vision.
Already, tensions have surfaced in states where defected governors clash with long‑standing APC members over control of party structures.
In Rivers, for instance, Siminalayi Fubara’s defection has sparked disputes between his camp and entrenched APC loyalists.
Similar frictions are reported in Delta and Plateau.
Political observers warn that APC’s dominance could paradoxically weaken its stability.
“When everyone is in APC, the opposition is no longer outside—it is inside,” one analyst noted.
PDP’s Decline
For PDP, the defections represent a near‑existential crisis.
Once Nigeria’s ruling party for 16 years, PDP has been reduced to a handful of states and struggles to present itself as a credible alternative.
Its inability to resolve leadership disputes or retain governors has accelerated its decline.
Yet some argue that PDP’s weakness could eventually force APC to implode under the weight of its own contradictions, creating space for new political movements.
The story of defections in Nigeria illustrates how political survival often trumps ideology.
APC’s rise has been fueled by waves of governors abandoning PDP, culminating in the dramatic 2025 surge.
But as APC grows stronger numerically, it faces the challenge of managing internal rivalries and maintaining coherence.
