TDAs of 2026, Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), stands as the most dominant political force in the country.
With control of 31 out of 36 states, a majority in the Senate (~59 seats), and the largest bloc in the House of Representatives (~162 seats), APC commands overwhelming influence across the federation.
By sheer numbers, it has consolidated power to a degree unmatched in Nigeria’s recent democratic history.
Yet despite this dominance, reports of attacks on opposition figures and parties continue to surface.
This contradiction raises a troubling question: what is APC still afraid of?
The Benin City Incident
In February 2026, gunmen opened fire near the convoy of Peter Obi, former Labour Party presidential candidate, during a political event in Benin City, Edo State.
Obi had attended a gathering linked to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) before moving to the residence of former APC chairman John Odigie-Oyegun.
Armed men reportedly trailed the convoy and opened fire at the gate and vehicles near the residence.
Several cars were damaged, bullet shells littered the scene, but thankfully, no lives were lost. Obi escaped unharmed.
The Nigeria Police Force confirmed receiving distress calls and deployed teams to restore order.
Later, the Department of State Services (DSS) arrested a suspect linked to threats and the shooting.
Supporters of Obi described the incident as a possible assassination attempt, while others urged caution, insisting investigations should determine the true circumstances.
The Bakassi Attack
Witnesses reported that armed thugs stormed the ADC office, vandalizing property and leaving behind scenes of destruction.
No arrests were made in the immediate aftermath, raising concerns about the growing culture of impunity in Nigeria’s political landscape.
Reacting to the ugly incident, former presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, strong condemned the attack.
Mr. Obi described the incident as “an attack on democracy itself.”
“What occurred at the ADC office in Bakassi is not merely an attack on a political party; it is an attack on democracy itself.
“When thugs can storm a party office and destroy property without facing arrest, it reflects how dangerously low our democratic standards have fallen,” Obi declared.
Why the Attacks?
With APC already controlling over 85% of Nigeria’s states and holding the largest share of seats in the National Assembly, one would expect confidence, not insecurity.
Yet the persistence of violent disruptions against opposition gatherings suggests otherwise.
- Fear of Alternative Voices: Even with numerical dominance, APC may perceive figures like Obi as symbolic threats.
His popularity among youth, urban voters, and reform-minded Nigerians represents a challenge to entrenched political structures.
- Fragile Legitimacy: Numbers alone do not guarantee legitimacy.
Allegations of electoral fraud, certificate scandals, and governance failures have eroded public trust.
Violence against opponents may be a desperate attempt to silence dissent rather than confront criticism.
- Control Through Intimidation: Attacks on opposition parties send a chilling message—that participation in politics outside APC comes with risks.
This undermines democratic pluralism and discourages citizens from supporting alternatives.
- The Shadow of 2023: The contentious 2023 elections left lingering doubts about fairness and transparency.
APC’s heavy-handed tactics may reflect an ongoing anxiety that its dominance rests on shaky ground.
The Bigger Picture
Nigeria’s democracy is weakened when ruling parties resort to intimidation despite already holding overwhelming power.
True leadership is not measured by the ability to suppress rivals but by the capacity to govern with fairness, transparency, and respect for dissent.
If APC continues down this path, it risks creating a culture where violence becomes normalized in politics.
That trajectory would not only endanger opposition figures but also erode the very foundations of democracy.
The Benin City attack is not just about Peter Obi—it is about the future of Nigeria’s political space.
If opposition leaders cannot campaign freely without fear of violence, then elections become hollow rituals rather than genuine contests of ideas.
Historical Parallels
Nigeria has seen this pattern before.
From the intimidation of opposition during the military era to the violent clashes of the Fourth Republic, the use of force to silence dissent has been a recurring theme.
Each time, it has left scars on the nation’s democratic journey.
The APC’s current dominance echoes the one-party tendencies of past regimes, but history shows that suppressing opposition only breeds resentment, instability, and eventual backlash.
Conclusion
The question remains: What is Tinubu afraid of?
With near-total control of Nigeria’s political machinery, APC should feel secure.
Yet the attacks on opposition figures suggest deep insecurity within the ruling party.
Perhaps the fear is not of losing seats, but of losing legitimacy.
And legitimacy cannot be won through bullets or intimidation—it must be earned through integrity, accountability, and genuine service to the people.
Nigeria’s democracy will only survive if its leaders recognize that power is not sustained by fear, but by trust.
Until then, the specter of violence will continue to haunt the nation’s politics, reminding us that democracy is not just about numbers—it is about values.
